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The (messy) Art of Prediction

People make all kinds of predictions based on all kinds of assumptions. Most fall embarassingly short in failing to foresee the sweeping impact of technological convergence and social adoption. For example Future Web Trends – at Innovation series with Jimmy Wales starts off with some great old quotes of predictions that really missed the mark:

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” – Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons” – Popular Mechanics, 1949
“640k ought to be enough for anybody” – Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” – Ken Olson, President, Chariman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977

Some do apparently get it right though. Take for example this 1967 video by Philco-Ford that made predictions about the year 1999 and actually managed to anticipate the use of personal computers for buying merchandise, paying bills, and sending emails. Granted they didn’t anticipate electronic documents, virtual representations or balanced gender roles but the overall concept is shockingly accurate.

The “You Will” ads from AT&T in 1993 were not exactly 30 years ago but being only 2 years after the invention of the Web and given the current pace of change they did do a great job of showing what would be possible with broad cellular coverage and high capacity broadband.

Pattie Maes Gives TED talk on SixthSense Wearable Gestural Interface

Pattie Maes, Director of Fluid Interfaces with MIT Media Labs gives a talk at TED 2009 on wearable gestural interface that augments the physical world with digital information. Very creative ideas. Having a projector hang on your body is less than ideal but advancements through commercialization would hopefully find a more natural and adaptable solution. Love the final statement as she walks off: “hopefully we’ll be back in 10 years with the ultimate sixth sense brain implant”. I hope you do Pattie.

Microsoft’s Vision for 2019

In the videos below, Microsoft does a great job in weaving the future paths of UI, real-time translation, telepresence, semweb, ehealth, machine vision, etc. You might debate whether we will still have the need for consuming information in a newspaper-like way or wether the costs of such high-res flexible display materials will be low enough to have that sort of proliferation (especially in hospitals and classrooms) but it paints a nice picture of widely interoperable and personalized information management. That being said, it’s only interoperable because, in this scenario, Microsoft is the only platform.

My favourite part is the classroom telepresence scene. Imagine the behavioural impact of a world where the primary cultural barrier – language – is barely even an afterthought! Not only that but to have fully emersive and interactive contact with people on the other side of the planet would foster a culture of greatly improved tolerance and understanding.

Have a look. I wish more organizations had the time and money to put together clips like these…

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